Thursday, May 29, 2008

While Y'All Were Asking Permission I Just Stepped Up and Took It

Have you heard to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball? It’s pretty simple. Basically, it says that your Expected Win-Loss should be equal to the proportion of the runs you score out of all of the runs scored in games you play. (Your Runs) / (Your Runs + Your Runs Allowed) in other words. Normally a team’s record falls within +/- 3 games. There are of course exceptions like last year’s Diamondbacks who “should” have been 79-83 but actually led the NL at 90-72. But it’s a good guideline.

The variation usually comes from games at either end of the spectrum, blowouts and close games. So when the Twins get trounced by the Tigers 19-3 on Saturday it makes the Twins appear worse and the Tigers appear better than they “are.” Additionally when the Twins win one-run games which they’ve done 12 times against 8 loses, they appear better than they “are” and the Royals appear worse.

The cool thing for me as a Twins fan is this. At the beginning of the Twins-Royals series, the Twins record (25-25) was better than their X W-L at (23-27). In both of the Royals games, the Royals led going into the top of the 9th including a blown save by Joe Nathan on Tuesday because of a missed sliding catch by Delmon Young which resulted in an indoor-four for Mark Teahan to tie the game. Each of those nights, the Twins squeaked out extra inning one-run wins alternately by playing small ball on Tuesday and by hitting the long ball last night. There’s no “this game is over” once we reach the late innings with this team. In the end it's the games you do or don't win that count not the ones which you should or shouldn't have.

As a result this morning the Twins record (27-25) is 4 games better than their X W-L (25-27). This makes sense since, as I said before, the Twins have won four more one-run games than they’ve lost.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Don't Hate the Player. Hate the Game.

I finally started watching "Lost" recently after an extended discussion with Gerry about the qualms I had about the show. This is exactly the sort of show which should've appealed to me right out of the gate and I should be square in the show's target demographic.

Yet at the time it first burst onto the scene I didn't get ABC very well on my rabbit ears nor can I really be bothered to sit down at a specific time on a specific night to catch a television program. By the time it made it to DVD, "Lost" was such a huge phenomenon that I was put off by it. Add in my perception of the show's writers favoring obfuscation over plot development and I let the "Lost" ship sail without me.

Which I'm perfectly okay with in the long run. I'm not the sort of person who shows up late to the scene and says, "Oh, wow. I didn't realize how good 'Lost' was and it really is." The moment where it was fully in the cultural eye as something new and fresh and exciting is over and, like I said, I let that moment pass with out involving myself in it. There are advantages like being able to look up answers to the show's questions and being able to knock out a block of episodes in a row.

But I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him. It's a good show and one which engenders complete fandom. The producers of the show know this and play up the bulletin board material. It's certainly in their favor to do so because the buzz helps their ratings. Then the fans respond with more obsession and the cycle feeds itself again. All in all, "Lost" is shrouded in an excess of mystique which is unfortunate because it is legitimately good on its own merits.



Instead of banging on a tired drum about how "things are popular based on hype and promotion now" (now being the operative word as though it's something new), I'd like to list things that make me happy which are underrated and underappreciated and need more attention instead of tearing down something else which does get a lot of attention. In no order and indeterminite quantity...

Cultural Studies

When I transferred back from St. Norbert to the University of Minnesota, I took a class in my last full semester from the Cultural Studies and Comparative Literatures Department. I wrote my senior paper in that class when I ran into a problem professor in the English Department capstone class. I ruminated on how if I'd gone to the University first I probably would've been a CSCL major.

And I've taken that into my post-collegiate life. I don't need to have a teacher assigning me books to read them. In fact, that's the point of a liberal arts degree; to foster a diversity of interests (because it's not the money). So I a lot of time in bookstores perusing their cultural studies section.

There I make discoveries like Klosterman's "Sex, Drugs and Cocoa Puffs" or the book I finished this weekend "American Nerd: The Story of My People" by Benjamin Nugent. The title is pretty explanatory of what the topic is but also of the slant.

This isn't like most cultural studies where a subject is examined from a distance. Nugent specifically weaves his own primary experience into the study and is thus able to cut into the "Why?" in much greater depth and detail. It also gives the narrative a definition and understanding a memoir usually doesn't have.

The Stretch of I-94 from Hudson, WI to St. Paul, MN

Driving from Minneapolis to just about any other major metropolitan area takes forever. The distance to Chicago or Milwaukee is about six hours and, unless you consider Duluth, Des Moines, LaCrosse or Eau Claire to be major cities, those are the closest metropolises to the Twin Cities. So if you're driving from the east on I-94 toward Minnesota, the last few hours though the farmland of West Wisconsin can seem interminable.

Then Hudson (on the border of Minnesota and Wisconsin) rolls up and you are attached to a rocket. Quickly buildings, malls and cities grow along the side of the road as you burn through the half hour to St. Paul and then it's across the high-bridge over the Mississippi River and into the heart of Minneapolis. If you've been tired driving through the night from Chicago or points further, that last stretch is like a bolt of energy.

The Re-playability of Certain Videogames

When Mario Kart came out over 15 years ago, could you have predicted we'd still be playing it into our late 20s? I suppose the paradigm has changed as we've grown older (and because we've grown older) where you don't stop playing videogames after college. It also matters that videogames have become less about reflexes and knowing a complex order of buttons to mash (bastions of the young and otherwise unencumbered) and are now much more egalitarian and relating to the realworld. When you're playing Mario Kart now, you only have to rotate your hands right and left like you would an actual steering wheel. Still it's been 15 years and the franchise is still going strong because guys like me still want to play.

Cover Versions of Songs You Love

"Loooove... Love will tear us apart... againnn"

Cover Versions of Songs That Suck (But Are Awesome Themselves)

"Dooooon't Stop... BEE-LEEE-VVIIINNN"

Spending A Long Weekend Doing Nothing

Well, not nothing. After a spending Friday night and into early Saturday morning celebrating a friend and co-worker's birthday party, I drove up to Madison to see my friends here. Since then I've seen the new Indiana Jones movie (if something is magnetic, cover it with fabric and it won't be anymore), played "Race for the Galaxy", had some excellent pork chops, done yoga, went for a really long walk, played some of the aforementioned Mario Kart, had people over for dinner, went to the gym, finished reading the aforementioned "American Nerd" and typed on my blog. As Mary and I were walking over to the gym this morning, we were talking about how great it is to have just spent this weekend with no particular plans. "It's like you're actually on vacation," she said. Which is 100% true and exactly what you need to feel relaxed and not tired going back to work on Tuesday.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Hope and Despair

With San Antonio closing out New Orleans last night, the NBA's final four were set and I regret to inform that two of the four teams are the Lakers and the Spurs and the other two are the Celtics and the Pistons. Let me summarize each of the possible Finals match-ups as follows

San Antonio - Detroit OH GOD ...

San Antonio - Boston ... MY EYES ...

Los Angeles Lakers - Boston ... ARE BLEEDING.



Los Angeles Lakers - Detroit This is the only series I could possibly care about and it's the one least likely to occur. You never know with Boston's propensity for making things interesting and seven games long. But without a 100 % healthy Chauncey Billups the Pistons will need to capitalize on the Celtics mistakes more than they will be able to play their own game. If this Finals happens, I'll watch every game. Otherwise I'm turn my complete concentration to...

THE NBA DRAFT!!!

Chances are I've spent 80% of my basketball thoughts in the last month thinking about the draft with 18% going to the playoffs and 2% to Mike D'Antoni first coming to Chicago and then going to New York. When you cheer for a team like Minnesota who finished so far out of contention, you could even argue a quarter of my in-season thoughts were about who the Timberwolves were going to draft this off-season. In fact, if you stop by my desk at work you'll find pictures of two basketball players. One is Al Jefferson. The other is Derrick Rose. El Jefe went up second.

It is perhaps premature to post an entry about the NBA Draft before the draft lottery has even taken place. As of tonight we'll know whether the Timberwolves have the fourth pick in a three man draft or if their franchise good luck will blossom. Despite our team's history of having the X+1 pick in a draft where there are X elite players, I have to feel hopeful.



The truth is I don't feel like we're going to drop into the top three for any rational reason. It's just this feeling in my gut that feels like hope. Either that or, hopefully, sensing when it's about to rain.

Update: It looks like my choice of a Christian Laettner picture was prescient because like 1992 the T'wolves ended up with the 3rd pick in an draft where the first two guys were obvious picks. On the whole, I feel good about the way the lottery played out.

The Bulls got the top pick and, if I have a second team, it's Chicago. They've had a rough patch this season because of injuries to their top three guys after being picked by a lot of experts to be a championship contender. Adding Michael Beasley to their line-up means they'll be pretty formidable.

Theoretically they could start Kirk Heinrich at PG, Luol Deng at SG, Tyrus Thomas at SF, Beasley at PF and Susie's second favorite player Joakim Noah at C. This does mean the incompetent John Paxson gets to keep his job. But the Bulls will have some pieces for the next coach to put together into something.

The Heat got the second pick and at first I was cursing the luck of the Wolves. Miami pretty clearly tanked the end of the season by shutting down Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion and playing NBDL players for the last quarter of the season. Karma should've smote them and given them the fourth pick for good measure.

Then I remembered they play in the East, they'll have Wade and Marion healthy for the whole season next year, they'll be drafting Derrick Rose (who is perfect for them and vice versa) and if they make the playoffs Minnesota gets their first round pick next year. So the Wolves could have two first round picks next year. Go Heat!



As I said, I was disappointed the Wolves only got the third pick. I like the choice Minnesota has though. We have two glaring needs on the roster and it's the same glaring needs everyone seems to have, a point guard and/or a center. Now we do have internal options like re-signing Sebastian Telfair to play PG or moving Jefe to C. But there are also talented guys at #3 we can pick to fill those holes instead of just patching over them. It's just a decision of which one you'd like to address.

The pick seems to be between OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless and maybe Kevin Love which makes me wish I'd seen more Pac-10 basketball this season. I prefer OJ Mayo since I think he's more adaptable to the NBA game and could create a good mix on offense with Foye and Al while playing good defense next to Brewer. The truth is the T'Wolves have changed a lot since this time last summer and yet it's not as though the future is bleak. In fact, I'm still feeling good about it.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Changing Body Math Update

It's been about four months since I made my first post (I realize I made a math error which I'll point out below but I didn't feel like going back to change.) about working out and losing weight so I figured I was due for an update.

In the last six months, I've dropped my weight from 305 lbs. to 270 lbs for a gross loss of 35 lbs. When I started working out I had 30% body fat and have trimmed that number down to 26%. Multiply all those respective numbers together and I've gone from carrying 91.5 lbs. of fat down to 70.2 lbs. There are 21.3 lbs. of fat (the weight of this 1 year old dog) which *poof* no longer exist.

The other 14 lbs is water weight. Last time I accounted this weight as gaining muscle which is simply not the case. Unless I were losing bone density or giving away internal organs, this is just my body adjusting the amount of water it holds. Think about the blood maintaining the fat which is no longer needed and reabsorbed by the body and it makes sense.

The correct way of figuring out the muscle I've added goes back to the body fat percentage. I've lost 4% of fat which means that a greater proportion is made up of something else now. There are factors like my bones becoming more dense but for the most part it's muscle taking up a greater proportion of my overall weight. Conservatively saying 3% is new muscle growth and 1% other factors that means I've gained 8.1 lbs of muscle in the last six months or about as much as one gallon of water weighs.

1 pound of muscle burns 50 calories at day which means that I'm burning an additional 405 calories per day simply by changing my body makeup. Out of the Bs, that's the same as 2 plain bagels, 4 bananas or light beers, 5.4 oz of blue cheese dressing, about 10 spears of brocolli or 40.5 tbsp. of BBQ sauce. To put it another way, at rate of 405 calories a day, a pound of fat would burn away in about eight and a half days. And that's just existing at rest, not taking into account that muscle actually getting used when I work out.

The thing which I have a greater understanding of since I wrote my last post is that I shouldn't be as concerned with my weight as much as I should be focused on my body fat percentage. According to the BMI scale, I'm obese and will be until I can slide under 263 lbs with a goal of 218 to be on the high end of normal.

Well, if we go back to the top, my baseline weight which includes bones, organs, muscle and water weight but not fat is about 200 lbs. To be 218 pounds, assuming my bones growing more dense and my muscles getting stronger equals my water weight loss, I could carry only 18 lbs. of fat. for a very athletic 8% body fat. For some perspective, Michael Jordan (a world-class athelete) weighed 216 lbs. during his last year in the NBA. And that's the top end of what they consider "normal."

If you focus on body fat percentage instead a different picture emerges. By this metric being over 25% body fat for a male is obese. So let's say I maintain my present weight but lose that 1% body fat. That's only 2.7 lbs. of fat I need to lose. Even if I drop my another 10 pounds to 260, the north end of what I weighed during college and consider a good guideline, I'll need to shed 5.2 lbs of body fat to get to 25%.

There is work yet to be done. Still results are happening and there's no reason why I can't achieve my goals over the next few months. I knew this was going to be at least a year-long process when I started six months ago. With the progress I've made, it looks like I can start setting some goals further out than I expected.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Welcome to AaronGleeman.com Readers

Good morning to everyone coming over from AaronGleeman.com.

As you'll see, not all of my posts are about baseball. But as a Minnesota Twins fan living deep in Chicago Cubs and White Sox territories (for now), I'm reaching out to you guys on the web.

Take a look around, leave a comment and have a nice day. Thanks to Aaron for the plug.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Once I Start I Cannot Stop Myself

A few weekends ago Susie and I were riding in our car. She was driving and I was riding shotgun which means I'm in charge of keeping good music on the radio. We were listening to Jack-FM when "Closer" comes on. It's easy to forget what a good song it is. Almost fifteen years ago it's really good for both shaking your fists or for shaking your ass.

I like "The Fragile" as much as I like "Pretty Hate Machine." Still the matter is Trent Reznor writes better songs when they drive. When he's being atmospheric and ambient, he's good enough to get by. When he's rocking (and not in the way the new R.E.M. album strives to rock), there are few who can keep up. Which is why I was happy as I listened to the new Internet-released Nine Inch Nails album, "The Slip." Here are some of the songs which stuck out for me.

999,999 Just a minute and a half of ambient humming. One might ask what's the point of putting a track like this on an album. It's kind of a waste of space on your hard drive. I like to think about it within the context of "the album as a performance." This track is like the moment when the lights go down and before the band steps on stage. This is the album telling you to get ready for the show to start. Hence the connection between the title of this song...

1,000,000 ...and this song. Like a good concert opener, it immediately grabs you and like a good NIN song, it punches you in the mouth for a good four minutes. There's a moment I love three minutes into the song. The song stops abruptly and you ask yourself, "Is that the end?" Then it comes back in after four or five seconds like comic timing. It absolutely slays me.

Letting You I was one of a few kids in middle and high school who were good at sports but not a jock-ass-motherfucker. So while I didn't hang out behind the loading docks sneaking smokes, I heard of Nine Inch Nails before "Closer" entered my peer group about 1995. (Things were different back then and it might take a year between the release of an album and when it even high school freshmen had heard it.) The first Nine Inch Nails song I ever heard was actually "Happiness in Slavery" on a cassette of songs from Woodstock '94. This song absolutely takes me back to that moment.

Discipline There's this phrase which was created by the early-80s English ska band and oft co-opted since then: FUCK ART LET'S DANCE. You can sing all of the songs of pain and angst you want. Unless you throw in a song you can move to occassionally, you're just complaining. So let's dance motherfucker. See: Boy, Fall Out.

Lights In the Sky Okay, I take back a bit of what I said earlier about Trent being good enough to get by when he writes "quiet" songs. Because, if I really am being honest, the best song he ever wrote was not "Closer" but "Hurt" as completely validated by Johnny Cash. This song is just Trent's voice and a piano sounding as heart-achingly beautiful as both are possible of being.

(Hi CJ. How are you?)

Sunday, May 4, 2008

GoGo to the ThunderDome



This off-season the Twins had to part ways with two of their three best players in Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. Both men wanted bigger lumps of money than small market Minnesota could provide for them and Hunter signed for $90 million over 5 years in Los Angeles and Johan forced a trade to New York and signed an extension $137.5 million over 6 years. As good as those players were, the $41 million they'll make this season is equal to two thirds of the Twins actual payroll. So as it was time for the Twins to find new players, it was time for me to find new heroes to follow.



One of the oddities of living away from home is your interests are often very different from those immediately around you. I have a Minnesota Twins jacket that I wear all winter long and every few weeks I field a "Minnesota Twins?" objection. My defense is a simple "I'm from Minnesota," and "If you lived there, would you suddenly become a Twins fan?" and everyone can see the wisdom of that.

However there are times when you can't help but get swept up by what is happening around you. Like Chicago's new found obsession with Kosuke Fukudome. I'll lay claim to knowing about him before most Cubs fans knew about him simply because I followed his free agent courtship. But I don't think anyone could've anticipated how popular Fukudome would become so quickly. It's like loving an indie rock band from Europe, liking their US debut and then watching that album blow up in the mainstream. Kosuke's appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week was like seeing your favorite band staring back from the front of SPIN.

Okay, there is something to his name looking like an obscenity in English. I attended a Cubs game in May with a friend and I could make her giggle each time he came to bat by saying, "Hey, look. Fuck-you-do-me is up again." There's more to the Fukudome love. He's not a typical breakout star. He isn't up there muscling pitches out onto Waveland Avenue or blowing batters away with his fastball or knee-buckling slider. All the dude does is be involved in the Cubs offense getting going and then winning games. The best part is he does it with talent, not with scrappiness. He's the bona fide real deal.

So I took a rare step. I have a collection of t-shirt jerseys of players I admire on other teams. I don't have a lot though because I really have to like that player. When I was in Arizona in the spring of 2002, I bought a Curt Schilling D'backs jersey. I like that he (and Randy Johnson) had lifted Arizona to the World Championship. Barry Zito was added to my collection in 2004 by a friend who is an A's fan. She and I caught every Zito-pitched game in Minnesota we could because Barry pitches like he has a bus to catch. Then, the day after we went to the Cubs game, my friend and I went to the Cubs Pro Shop and bought matching Fukudome t-shirts. It's official. I'm a Fukudome fan.



Carlos Gomez was part of the cache of young players the Twins received in the Johan Santana trade. One of the top prospects in the Mets organization, Gomez was tabbed by the managerial staff to be Minnesota's Opening Day centerfielder. So Gomez, more than any player, represents moving on after Santana and replacing Torii Hunter. As the Twins sit in first place as of today, they seem to be doing well in both counts. Center to all of that is Gomez.

First let's address the thing most Twins fans back home are relaying back to me and something I got to enjoy first hand when the Twins visited the Southside last month. Gomez is really fast. You don't need to have an eye for baseball or dive into stats to see it. If Gomez is standing at point A and is going to point B, there isn't much of a chance the ball will get there first. He's even leading the majors in stolen bases (13) while only being caught once.

Also the kid has handled the pressure of being the centerpiece of the Johan trade and the replacement for one of the most popular players in Twins history. Though Morneau and local boy made good Joe Mauer get most of the adoration from Twins fans, Gomez will quickly move into the third place by flying around centerfield and the basepaths in the new ballpark. Which is how he's really going to make an impact. The Twins took a lot of criticism this past off-season for not ponying up the money for Hunter and Santana. As I pointed out before, that wasn't going to happen.

The Twins will continue to be a small market team and need to trade away players as they become too expensive for the budget. But the Twins have proven they are able to turn those players into other less-expensive players like Gomez. By concentrating on developing players and then trusting their talent, the Twins have developed a plan which works. Anyone who doubts the continued success of the plan will have to double check the standings as of this morning. It looks like things are working out for the Twins and look even better for the the future.