The phone rings in the Utah Jazz draft war room. GM Kevin O'Conner answers. It's Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn on the other end.
"Kevin, this is David. I wanted to wish you good luck with the draft tonite."
"Thank you, David. The same to you."
"I also called to talk shop. Any interest in trading the #2 pick for Derrick Favors?"
"I'll be honest, David. I haven't warmed on Williams. We'll pass."
"Okay, Kevin. I just thought I'd call and make sure."
On the TV in the background, David Stern approaches the podium. He announces the Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving from Duke University. The phone rings again.
"Hello."
"Kevin, it's David again. We're taking Jimmer..."
"That will be a bold pick, David."
"...at eleven."
"What?"
"Derrick Favors."
As O'Conner listens to the dial tone, the TV the clock clicks down to zero.
"Kevin," says a Jazz employee. "We're on the clock."
Still stunned O'Conner says, "Um, Derrick Williams. And call everyone between us and twelve. See who they want for their pick."
On the television David Stern announces that with the second pick in the NBA Draft the Utah Jazz select Derrick Williams of the University of Arizona. The analysts go insane. Bill Simmons makes his first "Kahhhhhnnnn" tweet.
"Kevin, it looks like the Wolves have called around and noone was able to make a deal with them. They can't believe this is happening either."
A progressively frustrated looking David Stern announces the Cavaliers selection of Enes Kanter, Toronto's selection of Jonas Valanciunas and Washington's selection of Bismack Biyombo with the third, fourth and fifth picks in the draft.
"What are we hearing?" says O'Conner to noone in particular.
"Nothing. Everyone is thrilled to be getting their guy. We got some offers to take Jimmer and trade him to us. None of them are worth mentioning. Mostly the same offers we got before tonite."
Stern announces Sacramento picks Brandon Knight and the commisioner drops his scowl long enough to smile for a picture. Jay Bilas announces there is a rumor the Utah Jazz are calling around the league trying to trade up for Jimmer. The Pistons select Jan Vesely with the seventh pick and the phone rings.
"Kahn," O'Conner says as he lifts the receiver to his mouth.
"Kevin, do we have a deal?"
"You can go to hell."
O'Conner slams the phone back onto the cradle. A Jazz employee turns to him.
"Charlotte will take him for us but they want us to take back Jackson for Kirelenko. The Wolves apparently told them about the Jimmer situation."
"Tell them no."
Two minutes later a visibly upset Stern wipes froth from his mouth as he emerges from the green room and announces the Bobcats select Kemba Walker. The phone rings again.
"Ignore it," says O'Conner. "Let him ruin his team."
The room sits in silence as the phone rings and rings.
"Milwaukee will take him for us but, thanks to the Wolves, we have to take Maggette."
"No."
Stern announces the Bucks take Tristan Thompson. Almost immediately Stern reemerges from behind the curtain. He smiles widely.
"With the 10th pick in the NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Jimmer Fredette from Brigham Young University."
The next day Fredette is met by a throng of press. He poses with his new jersey as his new GM looks on and he smiles at his new teammate Michael Beasley. Then he sits and leans forward to the microphone.
"The first thing I want to say," he says as he flashes a smile, "is how happy I am to be the newest member of the Oklahoma City Thunder."
Later that same day Russell Westbrook is introduced as the newest member of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kevin Love beams as his best friend and college roommate gives a good interview and says the right things.
The Timberwolves make the playoffs the next year with a 27-23 record and fail to make it out of the first round. The team stays together for the length of Love & Westbrook's extensions and fluctuates between the late lottery and first round exits. When they leave, the team restarts with a player who is something like 12 years old now.
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Thursday, May 20, 2010
It's A Number Game But Shit Don't Add Up Somehow
From the time I got on the bus yesterday morning until when he stopped texting me back seven hours later, Smallz and I exchanged mini-diatribes about the NBA Draft ranging from which player the Wolves should take with the fourth pick to the proper way to evaluate talent and construct a team to the other person's deficiencies at evaluating talent and those of their chosen method to constructing a team. Basically our arguments were this.
Smallz loves efficient players. Thus Kevin Love is his one shining beacon on our entire roster. As such Al Jefferson inspires much hatred in Smallz's gut. Not only does Jefferson play the same position as Love but inefficiently uses the ball in offensive situations Love would efficiently use them. His evidence is statistics and his team-building philosophy is to find other efficient players to pair with Love.
I, on the other hand, believe Jefferson is inefficient because he needs to be. Love is a good player and a compliment to Jefferson. But efficiency statistics don't tell the whole story. As the most offensively-skilled player on the Wolves, a less-than-efficient attempt from Jefferson is still better than passing the ball to a less talented teammate. Being the focus of the offense and the volume of his shots he can't cherry-pick only the best attempts. Basketball is scored as a quantitative game, not an efficiency game, and to remove Jefferson without a suitable replacement will only focus the defense on another lesser player.
(Further reading found HERE.)
This is especially important with the NBA draft coming up. Since the Wolves didn't get one of the surefire guys at the very top of the draft, their path forward is a lot less clear. Smallz wants to trade Jefferson to free playing time for Love and draft Kentucky's DeMarcus Cousins, a freakishly large center who may have character issues. I want to keep both Jefferson and Love while drafting Syracuse small forward Wesley Johnson, a lower risk lower reward player who plays a position of need. We could argue back and forth for hours (and did) about which one would be a better fit for Minnesota. I wanted to model the problem and get some results now.
How I Used Math To "Solve" the Problem
So let's assume three things. First that either Cousins or Johnson could boom or bust with equal likelihood. Let's just say Cousins wider range of possible outcomes averages out to Johnson's thinner range to make things easier. Second, let's assume the pick is an independent outcome. Let's say if Minnesota picked Cousins they wouldn't keep Jefferson and his minutes would go to DeMarcus. Third, the actual outcome will be one of many possible outcomes. When a weatherman says 55% chance of rain and it doesn't, he was right. It just fell in the 45% he didn't mention.
Here's the "game" I developed. Imagine every possible outcome for DeMarcus Cousins' and Wesley Johnson's careers is represented by a playing card. Since they are top draft picks they are more likely to succeed than fail so all face cards represent complete success (being a cornerstone), ten through six represent qualified success (being an NBA starter) and five through two mean they bust. I could look up the real success rate but let's keep it simple. Now draw two cards, one representing Cousins and the other representing Johnson. Reset the deck, reshuffle the cards and repeat the process 100 times.
(Or do like I did and use a random card generator like THIS ONE.)
What I found is Cousins is a cornerstone 37% of the time, a starter 38% of the time and a bust 25% of the time. Likewise Johnson is a cornerstone 38% of the time, a starter 33% of the time and a bust 29% of the time. In 48% of the cases Cousins is the better player while Johnson is the better player 45% of the time. (The remaining 7% is when they're even.) It's also worth noting Cousins is significantly better 27% of the time while Johnson is significantly better 26% of the time.
So what do the results tell us about who the Wolves should take? Nothing. This is a simplified model of an enormously complex system. But within the context of the system it says we should expect any result to be possible. In that way both experience and this simulation align. In the NBA Draft eventually you have to play the odds and hope for the best.
P.S. This is the raw data from my simulation. Cousins is on the left and Johnson on the right. Ignore the symbols. That's just me coding the data.
CJ
A4**
A3**
A9**
88-
610++
610++
Q8**
QK*
63*
32*
5J++
10Q+
9J+
87*
410++
56*
3Q++
34+
5A++
67+
109*
QJ*
4K++
82**
109*
63*
56+
7Q++
86*
J8**
3A++
910+
5K++
J9*
Q4**
103**
KJ*
JQ+
A2**
9Q+
25+
K5**
9Q+
4A++
63*
44-
6K++
6Q++
9K++
K3**
KJ*
8A++
5J++
8Q++
A5**
25++
7Q++
KA+
K8**
A3**
J3**
22-
J3**
37++
24+
76*
9J+
A4**
3K++
QJ*
KA+
88-
53*
A8**
82**
36+
J8*
8Q++
J7**
Q9*
6J++
AA-
6A++
A5**
310++
92**
QQ-
JK+
56+
8Q++
8J+
Q9*
Q6**
Q5**
810+
J2**
33-
104**
A7**
QA+
Smallz loves efficient players. Thus Kevin Love is his one shining beacon on our entire roster. As such Al Jefferson inspires much hatred in Smallz's gut. Not only does Jefferson play the same position as Love but inefficiently uses the ball in offensive situations Love would efficiently use them. His evidence is statistics and his team-building philosophy is to find other efficient players to pair with Love.
I, on the other hand, believe Jefferson is inefficient because he needs to be. Love is a good player and a compliment to Jefferson. But efficiency statistics don't tell the whole story. As the most offensively-skilled player on the Wolves, a less-than-efficient attempt from Jefferson is still better than passing the ball to a less talented teammate. Being the focus of the offense and the volume of his shots he can't cherry-pick only the best attempts. Basketball is scored as a quantitative game, not an efficiency game, and to remove Jefferson without a suitable replacement will only focus the defense on another lesser player.
(Further reading found HERE.)
This is especially important with the NBA draft coming up. Since the Wolves didn't get one of the surefire guys at the very top of the draft, their path forward is a lot less clear. Smallz wants to trade Jefferson to free playing time for Love and draft Kentucky's DeMarcus Cousins, a freakishly large center who may have character issues. I want to keep both Jefferson and Love while drafting Syracuse small forward Wesley Johnson, a lower risk lower reward player who plays a position of need. We could argue back and forth for hours (and did) about which one would be a better fit for Minnesota. I wanted to model the problem and get some results now.
How I Used Math To "Solve" the Problem
So let's assume three things. First that either Cousins or Johnson could boom or bust with equal likelihood. Let's just say Cousins wider range of possible outcomes averages out to Johnson's thinner range to make things easier. Second, let's assume the pick is an independent outcome. Let's say if Minnesota picked Cousins they wouldn't keep Jefferson and his minutes would go to DeMarcus. Third, the actual outcome will be one of many possible outcomes. When a weatherman says 55% chance of rain and it doesn't, he was right. It just fell in the 45% he didn't mention.
Here's the "game" I developed. Imagine every possible outcome for DeMarcus Cousins' and Wesley Johnson's careers is represented by a playing card. Since they are top draft picks they are more likely to succeed than fail so all face cards represent complete success (being a cornerstone), ten through six represent qualified success (being an NBA starter) and five through two mean they bust. I could look up the real success rate but let's keep it simple. Now draw two cards, one representing Cousins and the other representing Johnson. Reset the deck, reshuffle the cards and repeat the process 100 times.
(Or do like I did and use a random card generator like THIS ONE.)
What I found is Cousins is a cornerstone 37% of the time, a starter 38% of the time and a bust 25% of the time. Likewise Johnson is a cornerstone 38% of the time, a starter 33% of the time and a bust 29% of the time. In 48% of the cases Cousins is the better player while Johnson is the better player 45% of the time. (The remaining 7% is when they're even.) It's also worth noting Cousins is significantly better 27% of the time while Johnson is significantly better 26% of the time.
So what do the results tell us about who the Wolves should take? Nothing. This is a simplified model of an enormously complex system. But within the context of the system it says we should expect any result to be possible. In that way both experience and this simulation align. In the NBA Draft eventually you have to play the odds and hope for the best.
P.S. This is the raw data from my simulation. Cousins is on the left and Johnson on the right. Ignore the symbols. That's just me coding the data.
CJ
A4**
A3**
A9**
88-
610++
610++
Q8**
QK*
63*
32*
5J++
10Q+
9J+
87*
410++
56*
3Q++
34+
5A++
67+
109*
QJ*
4K++
82**
109*
63*
56+
7Q++
86*
J8**
3A++
910+
5K++
J9*
Q4**
103**
KJ*
JQ+
A2**
9Q+
25+
K5**
9Q+
4A++
63*
44-
6K++
6Q++
9K++
K3**
KJ*
8A++
5J++
8Q++
A5**
25++
7Q++
KA+
K8**
A3**
J3**
22-
J3**
37++
24+
76*
9J+
A4**
3K++
QJ*
KA+
88-
53*
A8**
82**
36+
J8*
8Q++
J7**
Q9*
6J++
AA-
6A++
A5**
310++
92**
QQ-
JK+
56+
8Q++
8J+
Q9*
Q6**
Q5**
810+
J2**
33-
104**
A7**
QA+
Monday, August 25, 2008
USA BASKETBALL WINS GOLD!!!
I didn't comment on this yesterday when it was new news despite watching the end of the game online. But I'm glad that the USA Mens National Basketball Team won the gold medal in Beijing and winning all of their games can go back to being no news. Is it time for the NBA season yet?
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
21 Things You Need to Know About Timberwolves History
Below is the content of an e-mail I sent to a co-worker who agreed to be a Timberwolves fan if I would in turn be a Bulls fan. I considered this a fair exchange and prepped this little run down of the franchise's history for his benefit.
1.) The team is 18 years old this year which means it’s old enough to vote and smoke but not to drink legally. I was 9 when the team came into existence, drafted Pooh Richardson and played their first season pushed up against the bleachers in the Metrodome. Our first win was against the Charles Barkley-lead Philadelphia 76ers and I was there. Our first home game was against Michael Jordan and the Bulls. We didn’t win that game.
2.) The following media members were ours first.
Kevin Harlan
Michelle Tafoya
It gives us a little smile to see that they succeeded coming out of our small market. So well, in fact, that no one knows they were ours first.
3.) The following players were ours at one point.
Pooh Richardson
Luc Longley
Stephon Marbury
Donyell Marshall
Chauncey Billups
Any mention of their success as players on playoff teams after leaving our team is subconsciously foot-noted in our minds with the words “Ex-Timberwolf.”
4.) The less said about Gerald Glass, Felton Spencer, Marlon Maxey, Will Avery or Ndudi Ebi the better.
5.) Isaiah Rider warrants mentioning if only to prove there was someone even more screwed up than Stephon Marbury whom we placed all of our hopes into at one point.
6.) Christian Laettner warrants mentioning if only to illustrate the Wolve’s ability to get draft pick X+1 when there are X number of sure things in the draft. Laettner was after Shaq-Alonzo in 1992, Rider went after Webber-Bradley-Penny-Mashburn in 1993 and Marshall went after Robinson-Kidd-Hill in 1994.
Other than Bradley, all of those guys were an All-Star at least once if not multiple times. Laettner is the only one of our guys who made the All-Star Game and he was an ex-Wolf by then. As such, we’re all a little troubled by picking third in this year’s draft.
7.) Mr. Timberwolf is Doug West. He was the original Timberwolf who stuck with the team for the longest and we were all shocked when he was traded for Anthony Peeler and then even more shocked when it was revealed he was an alcoholic. I mean, if he’d just said something we would’ve got him some help and not loved him any less.
8.) The greatest accomplishment in Wolves history pre-1995 was when Micheal Williams (notice the Dwyane-esque alternative spelling) made 97 FT in a row to break and set the “consecutive FT w/o a miss” record.
9.) The career leaders in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, personal fouls, field goals, field goal attempts, games and minutes played pre-1995 were Doug West, Christian Laettner, Pooh Richardson, Doug West, Christian Laettner, Christian Laettner, Doug West, Doug West, Doug West, Doug West and Doug West respectively. (See #7)
10.) The second greatest day in Timberwolves history was June 28th, 1995 when the Timberwolves drafted Kevin Garnett out of Farragut Academy High School in Chicago. He then became the franchise’s career leader in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, personal fouls, field goals, field goal attempts, games and minutes played. Often this is by a large margin.
11.) Kevin Garnett was and is a superior player to Tim Duncan. It’s arguable if you’re an impartial fan. It’s completely inarguable if you are a Timberwolves fan and anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t see KG on a game-to-game basis. If Garnett had the same supporting cast as Duncan and vice versa, we’d be talking about Tim Duncan never living up to his potential. For further evidence, examine the career of Rasho Nesterovic when he played next to KG and then when he played next to Tim.
12.) The most painful day in Timberwolves history was May 20th, 2000 the day Malik Sealy was killed by a drunk driver who was driving down the wrong side of a divided highway. Sealy was driving home from KG’s 24th birthday party and to this day Malik’s number 2 is the only number retired by the Wolves. That they guy who killed him was recently arrested again for DWI makes us smolderingly mad.
13.) The second most painful day in Timberwolves history is the day Marbury was traded to New Jersey, Sam Casell went to Milwaukee and we got Terrell Brandon. Remember when Terrell Brandon was considered an elite point guard in the NBA? Yeah, that all disappeared into knee surgeries and lost opportunities in Minnesota. More importantly, it broke up the KG-Marbury duo who honestly had fun playing together and were perfectly suited to each others games. Marbury just didn’t want to be second banana to KG.
14.) #s 12 and 13 are the things which make KG’s career actually Large “T” Tragic. Something changed in the ultimate teammate each of those days.
15.) The Joe Smith Debacle didn’t cost the Timberwolves as much as you’d believe. Yes, we lost three first round picks (The penalty was originally five and then two were returned) but the only player we actually lost out on was Zach Randolph in 2001 and he plays the same position as KG. The way it hurt the Wolves was we didn’t have 1st rounders to throw in on trades for veterans to surround KG.
16.) The third and fourth greatest days in Timberwolves history were July 25th and 28th, 2003 when Glen Taylor, a man who made his millions selling greeting cards, pushed his chips to the center of the table and said, “I’d like Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell.” In return the Wolves gave up Terrell Brandon, Joe Smith, Anthony Peeler and Marc Jackson. The Timberwolves then embarked on the greatest season in franchise history winning 58 games, taking the 1 seed in the West, busting out of the first round and winning KG the league MVP award.
17.) The greatest game in franchise history was during the playoffs that year, Game 3 of the second round series against Sacramento. Each side kept trading blows until Trenton Hassell got a hand on a last second OT jumper by Peja Stojakovic. I literally am getting goose bumps right now. This also doubled as the greatest game of KG’s entire career as he submitted a 30-15 right when his team needed him to play huge.
18.) The greatest day in Timberwolves history is May 19th, 2004 when Timberwolves beat the Sacramento in Game 7 of that same series to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Wolves won 83-80 behind 32-20 from KG, 23 points from Cassell and another 14 from Sprewell. The eerie coincidence is it was exactly four years to the day from the birthday party that ended with Malik Sealy losing his life. In that moment, the franchise had never been so high and yet its history was extremely close at hand.
19.) Things kind of fell apart from that day. The Wolves lost to the Lakers in six game, Cassell and Sprewell both acted pouty when the Wolves wouldn’t give them exorbitant amounts of cash, the Wolves did give exorbitant amounts of cash to guys like Troy Hudson and Trenton Hassell and things weren’t going to work out. When The KG Trade came it was like both sides happily walking away from a marriage. The love was still there but we just were headed in two different directions.
20.) In fact, the sting of the KG Trade was dulled a bit when eleven months later Boston won the title and KG had a little mini-breakdown on live television. When the words “This is For ‘Sota,” escaped his mouth every true fan felt a tingle up their spine, every “KG was better than Duncan” argument gained that much more credibility and every moment spent loving KG was validated.
There is only one other Minnesota athlete in my entire life that the people of Minnesota loved as much as KG and that was Kirby Puckett. Some may have been bitter that KG couldn’t bring the hardware to us the way Kirby had twice. But deep down we were all happy that KG that, even if he got his championship somewhere else, KG was still thinking of us first.
21.) The future of the franchise looks good. We have a soon-to-be elite player in Al Jefferson who is good enough that our front office allegedly rebuffed the Bulls offer of the #1 pick for him, Randy Foye who any Wolves fan worth his salt will argue is statistically equal to Brandon Roy when healthy and some honest to goodness cap space coming in 2009.
Add in whomever we end up with after the draft (Mayo Clinic! Mayo Clinic!) to a bunch of other young guys like Rashad McCants, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, etc. and we’re going to be a team to follow. Maybe we won’t win a championship or even go that far into the playoffs. But we’re at least going to be interesting to watch.
1.) The team is 18 years old this year which means it’s old enough to vote and smoke but not to drink legally. I was 9 when the team came into existence, drafted Pooh Richardson and played their first season pushed up against the bleachers in the Metrodome. Our first win was against the Charles Barkley-lead Philadelphia 76ers and I was there. Our first home game was against Michael Jordan and the Bulls. We didn’t win that game.
2.) The following media members were ours first.
Kevin Harlan
Michelle Tafoya
It gives us a little smile to see that they succeeded coming out of our small market. So well, in fact, that no one knows they were ours first.
3.) The following players were ours at one point.
Pooh Richardson
Luc Longley
Stephon Marbury
Donyell Marshall
Chauncey Billups
Any mention of their success as players on playoff teams after leaving our team is subconsciously foot-noted in our minds with the words “Ex-Timberwolf.”
4.) The less said about Gerald Glass, Felton Spencer, Marlon Maxey, Will Avery or Ndudi Ebi the better.
5.) Isaiah Rider warrants mentioning if only to prove there was someone even more screwed up than Stephon Marbury whom we placed all of our hopes into at one point.
6.) Christian Laettner warrants mentioning if only to illustrate the Wolve’s ability to get draft pick X+1 when there are X number of sure things in the draft. Laettner was after Shaq-Alonzo in 1992, Rider went after Webber-Bradley-Penny-Mashburn in 1993 and Marshall went after Robinson-Kidd-Hill in 1994.
Other than Bradley, all of those guys were an All-Star at least once if not multiple times. Laettner is the only one of our guys who made the All-Star Game and he was an ex-Wolf by then. As such, we’re all a little troubled by picking third in this year’s draft.
7.) Mr. Timberwolf is Doug West. He was the original Timberwolf who stuck with the team for the longest and we were all shocked when he was traded for Anthony Peeler and then even more shocked when it was revealed he was an alcoholic. I mean, if he’d just said something we would’ve got him some help and not loved him any less.
8.) The greatest accomplishment in Wolves history pre-1995 was when Micheal Williams (notice the Dwyane-esque alternative spelling) made 97 FT in a row to break and set the “consecutive FT w/o a miss” record.
9.) The career leaders in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, personal fouls, field goals, field goal attempts, games and minutes played pre-1995 were Doug West, Christian Laettner, Pooh Richardson, Doug West, Christian Laettner, Christian Laettner, Doug West, Doug West, Doug West, Doug West and Doug West respectively. (See #7)
10.) The second greatest day in Timberwolves history was June 28th, 1995 when the Timberwolves drafted Kevin Garnett out of Farragut Academy High School in Chicago. He then became the franchise’s career leader in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, personal fouls, field goals, field goal attempts, games and minutes played. Often this is by a large margin.
11.) Kevin Garnett was and is a superior player to Tim Duncan. It’s arguable if you’re an impartial fan. It’s completely inarguable if you are a Timberwolves fan and anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t see KG on a game-to-game basis. If Garnett had the same supporting cast as Duncan and vice versa, we’d be talking about Tim Duncan never living up to his potential. For further evidence, examine the career of Rasho Nesterovic when he played next to KG and then when he played next to Tim.
12.) The most painful day in Timberwolves history was May 20th, 2000 the day Malik Sealy was killed by a drunk driver who was driving down the wrong side of a divided highway. Sealy was driving home from KG’s 24th birthday party and to this day Malik’s number 2 is the only number retired by the Wolves. That they guy who killed him was recently arrested again for DWI makes us smolderingly mad.
13.) The second most painful day in Timberwolves history is the day Marbury was traded to New Jersey, Sam Casell went to Milwaukee and we got Terrell Brandon. Remember when Terrell Brandon was considered an elite point guard in the NBA? Yeah, that all disappeared into knee surgeries and lost opportunities in Minnesota. More importantly, it broke up the KG-Marbury duo who honestly had fun playing together and were perfectly suited to each others games. Marbury just didn’t want to be second banana to KG.
14.) #s 12 and 13 are the things which make KG’s career actually Large “T” Tragic. Something changed in the ultimate teammate each of those days.
15.) The Joe Smith Debacle didn’t cost the Timberwolves as much as you’d believe. Yes, we lost three first round picks (The penalty was originally five and then two were returned) but the only player we actually lost out on was Zach Randolph in 2001 and he plays the same position as KG. The way it hurt the Wolves was we didn’t have 1st rounders to throw in on trades for veterans to surround KG.
16.) The third and fourth greatest days in Timberwolves history were July 25th and 28th, 2003 when Glen Taylor, a man who made his millions selling greeting cards, pushed his chips to the center of the table and said, “I’d like Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell.” In return the Wolves gave up Terrell Brandon, Joe Smith, Anthony Peeler and Marc Jackson. The Timberwolves then embarked on the greatest season in franchise history winning 58 games, taking the 1 seed in the West, busting out of the first round and winning KG the league MVP award.
17.) The greatest game in franchise history was during the playoffs that year, Game 3 of the second round series against Sacramento. Each side kept trading blows until Trenton Hassell got a hand on a last second OT jumper by Peja Stojakovic. I literally am getting goose bumps right now. This also doubled as the greatest game of KG’s entire career as he submitted a 30-15 right when his team needed him to play huge.
18.) The greatest day in Timberwolves history is May 19th, 2004 when Timberwolves beat the Sacramento in Game 7 of that same series to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Wolves won 83-80 behind 32-20 from KG, 23 points from Cassell and another 14 from Sprewell. The eerie coincidence is it was exactly four years to the day from the birthday party that ended with Malik Sealy losing his life. In that moment, the franchise had never been so high and yet its history was extremely close at hand.
19.) Things kind of fell apart from that day. The Wolves lost to the Lakers in six game, Cassell and Sprewell both acted pouty when the Wolves wouldn’t give them exorbitant amounts of cash, the Wolves did give exorbitant amounts of cash to guys like Troy Hudson and Trenton Hassell and things weren’t going to work out. When The KG Trade came it was like both sides happily walking away from a marriage. The love was still there but we just were headed in two different directions.
20.) In fact, the sting of the KG Trade was dulled a bit when eleven months later Boston won the title and KG had a little mini-breakdown on live television. When the words “This is For ‘Sota,” escaped his mouth every true fan felt a tingle up their spine, every “KG was better than Duncan” argument gained that much more credibility and every moment spent loving KG was validated.
There is only one other Minnesota athlete in my entire life that the people of Minnesota loved as much as KG and that was Kirby Puckett. Some may have been bitter that KG couldn’t bring the hardware to us the way Kirby had twice. But deep down we were all happy that KG that, even if he got his championship somewhere else, KG was still thinking of us first.
21.) The future of the franchise looks good. We have a soon-to-be elite player in Al Jefferson who is good enough that our front office allegedly rebuffed the Bulls offer of the #1 pick for him, Randy Foye who any Wolves fan worth his salt will argue is statistically equal to Brandon Roy when healthy and some honest to goodness cap space coming in 2009.
Add in whomever we end up with after the draft (Mayo Clinic! Mayo Clinic!) to a bunch of other young guys like Rashad McCants, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, etc. and we’re going to be a team to follow. Maybe we won’t win a championship or even go that far into the playoffs. But we’re at least going to be interesting to watch.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Life, Love and The NBA Draft
Most NBA Draft coverage falls into two categories. Either it's speculation about who certain teams will pick, often in the form of mock drafts, or it's analysis of who should be picked by certain teams. Obviously it's more of the latter for teams earlier in the draft and more of the former for teams later in the draft which is logical. Teams toward the beginning of the draft control their own destiny and teams closer to the end need a little luck.
This article will not fall into either one of those categories. I'm not anyone who has secret insight into who teams will pick nor do I have particularly interesting opinions of who should be picked. I fall into the "Beasley fits Chicago better but Rose would never forgive them" camp and, as a basketball fan, I hope the Bulls slight Rose and thus make him a player with a chip on his shoulder. (See: Paul, Chris) Yet I, like most of the basketball prognastocating masses, expect Rose to go first and Beasley to go second to the Heat. Instead my article will be about how I'd feel on Thursday night if the Timberwolves pick certain players with the number three pick.
Derrick Rose (.00001% chance of happening)
To do this the Timberwolves would probably have to trade for the top pick and I doubt Chicago would do it unless we gave them El Jefe. If we gave up Jefe I'd be very upset and wouldn't like it at all.
Michael Beasley (.00999% chance)
I would like to have Michael Beasley on the Timberwolves and if the Bulls take Rose first and the Heat take OJ Mayo he could end up on the team. If that were the case, not only would I be happy we got such a good young player but also that unlikely circumstance guided him to us.
OJ Mayo
An odd taste, yes. But delicious in the way things that aren't good for us usually are while still being full of Vitamin C, potassium and folic acid. Yum!
Ovington J'Antony Mayo (75% chance)
He's the draft's third best player and we have the third pick by merits of having the third worst record. So I'd be happy because we got the guy we wanted and deserved and because I think OJ Mayo fits well with Randy Foye in the backcourt. Plus he comes with a ready-made Minnesota-relevant nickname, The Clinic.
Brook Lopez (15% chance)
Brook Lopez is seven feet tall and our team ostensibly needs a center but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to pick Brook Lopez. I didn't want him last year when we picked seventh and I especially don't want him this year when we pick third.
Jerryd Bayless (2% chance)
I don't know as much about Bayless as Mayo and I've even cited that here in an earlier post. If he ended up on the Wolves instead of Mayo without a trade for pieces, I guess I'd be a little shocked and wonder what the front office knew that I didn't.
Kevin Love (4% chance)
He isn't tall enough to play center like Brook Lopez and again if he ended up on the Wolves without a trade, I'd be a little shocked and wonder what the front office knows that I didn't. However I do know a bit more about Love than Bayless and I'm impressed enough to perhaps have a little faith in the pick. How could you pass at buying a T'Wolves jersey that says "LOVE" across the back?
Danilo Gallinari (2% chance)
Honestly I don't know what to expect from Gallinari and I don't know if I like that for the Wolves. The team already took a big risk trading away Kevin Garnett and, in the early stages, it seems to have worked. But let's not convince ourselves the front office all of a sudden got their shit together and all of their big time risks are going to pay off.
DeAndre Jordan (.5% chance)
Eric Gordon (.25% chance)
Russel Westbrook (.25% chance)
The Wolves would probably trade out of the top three and get pieces back in exchange in order to take any of these three guys. Without knowing who we got back, I'd still be okay with having any of these three eventhough I don't know how well they fit with pieces we already have and none of them clearly will be good at the next level.
This article will not fall into either one of those categories. I'm not anyone who has secret insight into who teams will pick nor do I have particularly interesting opinions of who should be picked. I fall into the "Beasley fits Chicago better but Rose would never forgive them" camp and, as a basketball fan, I hope the Bulls slight Rose and thus make him a player with a chip on his shoulder. (See: Paul, Chris) Yet I, like most of the basketball prognastocating masses, expect Rose to go first and Beasley to go second to the Heat. Instead my article will be about how I'd feel on Thursday night if the Timberwolves pick certain players with the number three pick.
Derrick Rose (.00001% chance of happening)
To do this the Timberwolves would probably have to trade for the top pick and I doubt Chicago would do it unless we gave them El Jefe. If we gave up Jefe I'd be very upset and wouldn't like it at all.
Michael Beasley (.00999% chance)
I would like to have Michael Beasley on the Timberwolves and if the Bulls take Rose first and the Heat take OJ Mayo he could end up on the team. If that were the case, not only would I be happy we got such a good young player but also that unlikely circumstance guided him to us.
OJ Mayo
An odd taste, yes. But delicious in the way things that aren't good for us usually are while still being full of Vitamin C, potassium and folic acid. Yum!
Ovington J'Antony Mayo (75% chance)
He's the draft's third best player and we have the third pick by merits of having the third worst record. So I'd be happy because we got the guy we wanted and deserved and because I think OJ Mayo fits well with Randy Foye in the backcourt. Plus he comes with a ready-made Minnesota-relevant nickname, The Clinic.
Brook Lopez (15% chance)
Brook Lopez is seven feet tall and our team ostensibly needs a center but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to pick Brook Lopez. I didn't want him last year when we picked seventh and I especially don't want him this year when we pick third.
Jerryd Bayless (2% chance)
I don't know as much about Bayless as Mayo and I've even cited that here in an earlier post. If he ended up on the Wolves instead of Mayo without a trade for pieces, I guess I'd be a little shocked and wonder what the front office knew that I didn't.
Kevin Love (4% chance)
He isn't tall enough to play center like Brook Lopez and again if he ended up on the Wolves without a trade, I'd be a little shocked and wonder what the front office knows that I didn't. However I do know a bit more about Love than Bayless and I'm impressed enough to perhaps have a little faith in the pick. How could you pass at buying a T'Wolves jersey that says "LOVE" across the back?
Danilo Gallinari (2% chance)
Honestly I don't know what to expect from Gallinari and I don't know if I like that for the Wolves. The team already took a big risk trading away Kevin Garnett and, in the early stages, it seems to have worked. But let's not convince ourselves the front office all of a sudden got their shit together and all of their big time risks are going to pay off.
DeAndre Jordan (.5% chance)
Eric Gordon (.25% chance)
Russel Westbrook (.25% chance)
The Wolves would probably trade out of the top three and get pieces back in exchange in order to take any of these three guys. Without knowing who we got back, I'd still be okay with having any of these three eventhough I don't know how well they fit with pieces we already have and none of them clearly will be good at the next level.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Hope and Despair
With San Antonio closing out New Orleans last night, the NBA's final four were set and I regret to inform that two of the four teams are the Lakers and the Spurs and the other two are the Celtics and the Pistons. Let me summarize each of the possible Finals match-ups as follows
San Antonio - Detroit OH GOD ...
San Antonio - Boston ... MY EYES ...
Los Angeles Lakers - Boston ... ARE BLEEDING.
Los Angeles Lakers - Detroit This is the only series I could possibly care about and it's the one least likely to occur. You never know with Boston's propensity for making things interesting and seven games long. But without a 100 % healthy Chauncey Billups the Pistons will need to capitalize on the Celtics mistakes more than they will be able to play their own game. If this Finals happens, I'll watch every game. Otherwise I'm turn my complete concentration to...
THE NBA DRAFT!!!
Chances are I've spent 80% of my basketball thoughts in the last month thinking about the draft with 18% going to the playoffs and 2% to Mike D'Antoni first coming to Chicago and then going to New York. When you cheer for a team like Minnesota who finished so far out of contention, you could even argue a quarter of my in-season thoughts were about who the Timberwolves were going to draft this off-season. In fact, if you stop by my desk at work you'll find pictures of two basketball players. One is Al Jefferson. The other is Derrick Rose. El Jefe went up second.
It is perhaps premature to post an entry about the NBA Draft before the draft lottery has even taken place. As of tonight we'll know whether the Timberwolves have the fourth pick in a three man draft or if their franchise good luck will blossom. Despite our team's history of having the X+1 pick in a draft where there are X elite players, I have to feel hopeful.
The truth is I don't feel like we're going to drop into the top three for any rational reason. It's just this feeling in my gut that feels like hope. Either that or, hopefully, sensing when it's about to rain.
Update: It looks like my choice of a Christian Laettner picture was prescient because like 1992 the T'wolves ended up with the 3rd pick in an draft where the first two guys were obvious picks. On the whole, I feel good about the way the lottery played out.
The Bulls got the top pick and, if I have a second team, it's Chicago. They've had a rough patch this season because of injuries to their top three guys after being picked by a lot of experts to be a championship contender. Adding Michael Beasley to their line-up means they'll be pretty formidable.
Theoretically they could start Kirk Heinrich at PG, Luol Deng at SG, Tyrus Thomas at SF, Beasley at PF and Susie's second favorite player Joakim Noah at C. This does mean the incompetent John Paxson gets to keep his job. But the Bulls will have some pieces for the next coach to put together into something.
The Heat got the second pick and at first I was cursing the luck of the Wolves. Miami pretty clearly tanked the end of the season by shutting down Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion and playing NBDL players for the last quarter of the season. Karma should've smote them and given them the fourth pick for good measure.
Then I remembered they play in the East, they'll have Wade and Marion healthy for the whole season next year, they'll be drafting Derrick Rose (who is perfect for them and vice versa) and if they make the playoffs Minnesota gets their first round pick next year. So the Wolves could have two first round picks next year. Go Heat!
As I said, I was disappointed the Wolves only got the third pick. I like the choice Minnesota has though. We have two glaring needs on the roster and it's the same glaring needs everyone seems to have, a point guard and/or a center. Now we do have internal options like re-signing Sebastian Telfair to play PG or moving Jefe to C. But there are also talented guys at #3 we can pick to fill those holes instead of just patching over them. It's just a decision of which one you'd like to address.
The pick seems to be between OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless and maybe Kevin Love which makes me wish I'd seen more Pac-10 basketball this season. I prefer OJ Mayo since I think he's more adaptable to the NBA game and could create a good mix on offense with Foye and Al while playing good defense next to Brewer. The truth is the T'Wolves have changed a lot since this time last summer and yet it's not as though the future is bleak. In fact, I'm still feeling good about it.
San Antonio - Detroit OH GOD ...
San Antonio - Boston ... MY EYES ...
Los Angeles Lakers - Boston ... ARE BLEEDING.
Los Angeles Lakers - Detroit This is the only series I could possibly care about and it's the one least likely to occur. You never know with Boston's propensity for making things interesting and seven games long. But without a 100 % healthy Chauncey Billups the Pistons will need to capitalize on the Celtics mistakes more than they will be able to play their own game. If this Finals happens, I'll watch every game. Otherwise I'm turn my complete concentration to...
THE NBA DRAFT!!!
Chances are I've spent 80% of my basketball thoughts in the last month thinking about the draft with 18% going to the playoffs and 2% to Mike D'Antoni first coming to Chicago and then going to New York. When you cheer for a team like Minnesota who finished so far out of contention, you could even argue a quarter of my in-season thoughts were about who the Timberwolves were going to draft this off-season. In fact, if you stop by my desk at work you'll find pictures of two basketball players. One is Al Jefferson. The other is Derrick Rose. El Jefe went up second.
It is perhaps premature to post an entry about the NBA Draft before the draft lottery has even taken place. As of tonight we'll know whether the Timberwolves have the fourth pick in a three man draft or if their franchise good luck will blossom. Despite our team's history of having the X+1 pick in a draft where there are X elite players, I have to feel hopeful.
The truth is I don't feel like we're going to drop into the top three for any rational reason. It's just this feeling in my gut that feels like hope. Either that or, hopefully, sensing when it's about to rain.
Update: It looks like my choice of a Christian Laettner picture was prescient because like 1992 the T'wolves ended up with the 3rd pick in an draft where the first two guys were obvious picks. On the whole, I feel good about the way the lottery played out.
The Bulls got the top pick and, if I have a second team, it's Chicago. They've had a rough patch this season because of injuries to their top three guys after being picked by a lot of experts to be a championship contender. Adding Michael Beasley to their line-up means they'll be pretty formidable.
Theoretically they could start Kirk Heinrich at PG, Luol Deng at SG, Tyrus Thomas at SF, Beasley at PF and Susie's second favorite player Joakim Noah at C. This does mean the incompetent John Paxson gets to keep his job. But the Bulls will have some pieces for the next coach to put together into something.
The Heat got the second pick and at first I was cursing the luck of the Wolves. Miami pretty clearly tanked the end of the season by shutting down Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion and playing NBDL players for the last quarter of the season. Karma should've smote them and given them the fourth pick for good measure.
Then I remembered they play in the East, they'll have Wade and Marion healthy for the whole season next year, they'll be drafting Derrick Rose (who is perfect for them and vice versa) and if they make the playoffs Minnesota gets their first round pick next year. So the Wolves could have two first round picks next year. Go Heat!
As I said, I was disappointed the Wolves only got the third pick. I like the choice Minnesota has though. We have two glaring needs on the roster and it's the same glaring needs everyone seems to have, a point guard and/or a center. Now we do have internal options like re-signing Sebastian Telfair to play PG or moving Jefe to C. But there are also talented guys at #3 we can pick to fill those holes instead of just patching over them. It's just a decision of which one you'd like to address.
The pick seems to be between OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless and maybe Kevin Love which makes me wish I'd seen more Pac-10 basketball this season. I prefer OJ Mayo since I think he's more adaptable to the NBA game and could create a good mix on offense with Foye and Al while playing good defense next to Brewer. The truth is the T'Wolves have changed a lot since this time last summer and yet it's not as though the future is bleak. In fact, I'm still feeling good about it.
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