I was talking with some co-workers today about the AL Central and one of my friends was adamant that the Cleveland Indians weren't going to win the division. I think that's nuts.
Going back to 2006, an outlier season where three teams in the Central finished with 90 wins or better, this is how many wins the 2nd place team in the AL Central had at the end of the season:
2010 - 88 wins by the Chicago White Sox
2009 - 86 wins by the Detroit Tigers (Minnesota Twins won a 1 game playoff)
2008 - 88 wins by the Minnesota Twins (Chicago White Sox won a 1 game playoff)
2007 - 88 wins by the Detroit Tigers
The winner of the AL Central has needed to win an average of 88.5 games to take home the pennant. Let's call 89 wins the magic number to win the AL Central. The first team past the 89-win post is going to win the AL Central except by fluke.
After 40 games the Indians have banked 26 wins and to get to 89 wins they need 63 wins over their last 122 games. That's only two games above .500 and the Indians are currently playing at a pace 12! games above .500 for the season. They could lose their next ten games and go one for two the rest of the way and still hit 89 wins.
I think the AL Central is over. The Indians would need to collapse in epic fashion and someone else would have to raise their game incredibly to catch them. And that's a problem going forward because this team is built to win for the next handful of years.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Crazy Like A Fox
The phone rings in the Utah Jazz draft war room. GM Kevin O'Conner answers. It's Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn on the other end.
"Kevin, this is David. I wanted to wish you good luck with the draft tonite."
"Thank you, David. The same to you."
"I also called to talk shop. Any interest in trading the #2 pick for Derrick Favors?"
"I'll be honest, David. I haven't warmed on Williams. We'll pass."
"Okay, Kevin. I just thought I'd call and make sure."
On the TV in the background, David Stern approaches the podium. He announces the Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving from Duke University. The phone rings again.
"Hello."
"Kevin, it's David again. We're taking Jimmer..."
"That will be a bold pick, David."
"...at eleven."
"What?"
"Derrick Favors."
As O'Conner listens to the dial tone, the TV the clock clicks down to zero.
"Kevin," says a Jazz employee. "We're on the clock."
Still stunned O'Conner says, "Um, Derrick Williams. And call everyone between us and twelve. See who they want for their pick."
On the television David Stern announces that with the second pick in the NBA Draft the Utah Jazz select Derrick Williams of the University of Arizona. The analysts go insane. Bill Simmons makes his first "Kahhhhhnnnn" tweet.
"Kevin, it looks like the Wolves have called around and noone was able to make a deal with them. They can't believe this is happening either."
A progressively frustrated looking David Stern announces the Cavaliers selection of Enes Kanter, Toronto's selection of Jonas Valanciunas and Washington's selection of Bismack Biyombo with the third, fourth and fifth picks in the draft.
"What are we hearing?" says O'Conner to noone in particular.
"Nothing. Everyone is thrilled to be getting their guy. We got some offers to take Jimmer and trade him to us. None of them are worth mentioning. Mostly the same offers we got before tonite."
Stern announces Sacramento picks Brandon Knight and the commisioner drops his scowl long enough to smile for a picture. Jay Bilas announces there is a rumor the Utah Jazz are calling around the league trying to trade up for Jimmer. The Pistons select Jan Vesely with the seventh pick and the phone rings.
"Kahn," O'Conner says as he lifts the receiver to his mouth.
"Kevin, do we have a deal?"
"You can go to hell."
O'Conner slams the phone back onto the cradle. A Jazz employee turns to him.
"Charlotte will take him for us but they want us to take back Jackson for Kirelenko. The Wolves apparently told them about the Jimmer situation."
"Tell them no."
Two minutes later a visibly upset Stern wipes froth from his mouth as he emerges from the green room and announces the Bobcats select Kemba Walker. The phone rings again.
"Ignore it," says O'Conner. "Let him ruin his team."
The room sits in silence as the phone rings and rings.
"Milwaukee will take him for us but, thanks to the Wolves, we have to take Maggette."
"No."
Stern announces the Bucks take Tristan Thompson. Almost immediately Stern reemerges from behind the curtain. He smiles widely.
"With the 10th pick in the NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Jimmer Fredette from Brigham Young University."
The next day Fredette is met by a throng of press. He poses with his new jersey as his new GM looks on and he smiles at his new teammate Michael Beasley. Then he sits and leans forward to the microphone.
"The first thing I want to say," he says as he flashes a smile, "is how happy I am to be the newest member of the Oklahoma City Thunder."
Later that same day Russell Westbrook is introduced as the newest member of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kevin Love beams as his best friend and college roommate gives a good interview and says the right things.
The Timberwolves make the playoffs the next year with a 27-23 record and fail to make it out of the first round. The team stays together for the length of Love & Westbrook's extensions and fluctuates between the late lottery and first round exits. When they leave, the team restarts with a player who is something like 12 years old now.
"Kevin, this is David. I wanted to wish you good luck with the draft tonite."
"Thank you, David. The same to you."
"I also called to talk shop. Any interest in trading the #2 pick for Derrick Favors?"
"I'll be honest, David. I haven't warmed on Williams. We'll pass."
"Okay, Kevin. I just thought I'd call and make sure."
On the TV in the background, David Stern approaches the podium. He announces the Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving from Duke University. The phone rings again.
"Hello."
"Kevin, it's David again. We're taking Jimmer..."
"That will be a bold pick, David."
"...at eleven."
"What?"
"Derrick Favors."
As O'Conner listens to the dial tone, the TV the clock clicks down to zero.
"Kevin," says a Jazz employee. "We're on the clock."
Still stunned O'Conner says, "Um, Derrick Williams. And call everyone between us and twelve. See who they want for their pick."
On the television David Stern announces that with the second pick in the NBA Draft the Utah Jazz select Derrick Williams of the University of Arizona. The analysts go insane. Bill Simmons makes his first "Kahhhhhnnnn" tweet.
"Kevin, it looks like the Wolves have called around and noone was able to make a deal with them. They can't believe this is happening either."
A progressively frustrated looking David Stern announces the Cavaliers selection of Enes Kanter, Toronto's selection of Jonas Valanciunas and Washington's selection of Bismack Biyombo with the third, fourth and fifth picks in the draft.
"What are we hearing?" says O'Conner to noone in particular.
"Nothing. Everyone is thrilled to be getting their guy. We got some offers to take Jimmer and trade him to us. None of them are worth mentioning. Mostly the same offers we got before tonite."
Stern announces Sacramento picks Brandon Knight and the commisioner drops his scowl long enough to smile for a picture. Jay Bilas announces there is a rumor the Utah Jazz are calling around the league trying to trade up for Jimmer. The Pistons select Jan Vesely with the seventh pick and the phone rings.
"Kahn," O'Conner says as he lifts the receiver to his mouth.
"Kevin, do we have a deal?"
"You can go to hell."
O'Conner slams the phone back onto the cradle. A Jazz employee turns to him.
"Charlotte will take him for us but they want us to take back Jackson for Kirelenko. The Wolves apparently told them about the Jimmer situation."
"Tell them no."
Two minutes later a visibly upset Stern wipes froth from his mouth as he emerges from the green room and announces the Bobcats select Kemba Walker. The phone rings again.
"Ignore it," says O'Conner. "Let him ruin his team."
The room sits in silence as the phone rings and rings.
"Milwaukee will take him for us but, thanks to the Wolves, we have to take Maggette."
"No."
Stern announces the Bucks take Tristan Thompson. Almost immediately Stern reemerges from behind the curtain. He smiles widely.
"With the 10th pick in the NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Jimmer Fredette from Brigham Young University."
The next day Fredette is met by a throng of press. He poses with his new jersey as his new GM looks on and he smiles at his new teammate Michael Beasley. Then he sits and leans forward to the microphone.
"The first thing I want to say," he says as he flashes a smile, "is how happy I am to be the newest member of the Oklahoma City Thunder."
Later that same day Russell Westbrook is introduced as the newest member of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kevin Love beams as his best friend and college roommate gives a good interview and says the right things.
The Timberwolves make the playoffs the next year with a 27-23 record and fail to make it out of the first round. The team stays together for the length of Love & Westbrook's extensions and fluctuates between the late lottery and first round exits. When they leave, the team restarts with a player who is something like 12 years old now.
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