I was talking with some co-workers today about the AL Central and one of my friends was adamant that the Cleveland Indians weren't going to win the division. I think that's nuts.
Going back to 2006, an outlier season where three teams in the Central finished with 90 wins or better, this is how many wins the 2nd place team in the AL Central had at the end of the season:
2010 - 88 wins by the Chicago White Sox
2009 - 86 wins by the Detroit Tigers (Minnesota Twins won a 1 game playoff)
2008 - 88 wins by the Minnesota Twins (Chicago White Sox won a 1 game playoff)
2007 - 88 wins by the Detroit Tigers
The winner of the AL Central has needed to win an average of 88.5 games to take home the pennant. Let's call 89 wins the magic number to win the AL Central. The first team past the 89-win post is going to win the AL Central except by fluke.
After 40 games the Indians have banked 26 wins and to get to 89 wins they need 63 wins over their last 122 games. That's only two games above .500 and the Indians are currently playing at a pace 12! games above .500 for the season. They could lose their next ten games and go one for two the rest of the way and still hit 89 wins.
I think the AL Central is over. The Indians would need to collapse in epic fashion and someone else would have to raise their game incredibly to catch them. And that's a problem going forward because this team is built to win for the next handful of years.
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